Politics & Government

State Budget Hole Gets Deeper: Will Schools Be Spared More Cuts?

State economic forecaster's outlook is bleak, revenues expected to be down by nearly $700 million

The state’s budget hole got deeper Thursday, with a lowered revenue forecast that reflects a “fragile” economic recovery held back by slow job growth, sluggish construction and now the effects of Middle East unrest and the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan.

For the current 2009-2011 budget, revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, which is $80 million less than the state’s previous projection in November, according to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council.

And looking ahead to the next two-year budget, which lawmakers are grappling with now, revenues are expected to be $31.9 billion, which is $698 million less than the previous forecast.

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And even this latest projection is uncertain because of what’s happening around the globe.

“First, we had the volatility in oil prices because of political unrest in the Middle East,” said Arun Raha, the state’s chief economist, in a statement accompanying the forecast. “Now we have the tragedy in Japan, the world’s third largest economy, and one of the state’s leading trade partners.

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“The recovery continues to face other headwinds--slow job growth; a sluggish housing market; tight credit for small businesses; consumer retrenchment after the holidays; and fiscal drag from the federal stimulus winding down, as well as cuts in state and local government expenditures. Boeing’s tanker win will provide an important economic and psychological boost to the Washington state; however the recovery in Washington, as in the nation, is being held back by a weak housing market and sluggish job growth.”

Lawmakers will have to figure out where to make cuts as they deal with the lowered projections.

Locally, the Shoreline School District has lost state money this year including I-728 money for class size reduction and will lose more in its next budget cycle for 2011-12. 

"It is our deep hope that they won't be cutting  basic education any further," said Marcia Harris, deputy superintendent of the Shoreline School District. "We're looking at cuts of $5 million. We've taken our fair share."

The legislative session is set to run through April 24, though there's some doubt it will wrap up in time.


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