KCTS 9 Washington Poll: Inslee Holds Slight Lead Over McKenna, Ballot Measures Leading

The latest poll by KCTS showed that gubernatorial candidates Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee remain in a close race, with Inslee having a 3 percentage point lead among likely voters, which is within the margin of error.

Gubernatorial candidates Rob McKenna and Jay Inslee remain in a tight race that sees Inslee with a small lead among registered and likely voters, and the statewide ballot measures are all leading by double-digit margins, according to the latest KCTS 9 Washington Poll, which was conducted by the University of Washington.

Do you agree with the poll? Log in and tell us in the comments.

According to the poll, McKenna leads Inslee in the eastern part of the state, 56.6 percent to 30.6 percent, but Inslee has a lead over McKenna in the Puget Sound, 53.9 percent to 41.5 percent and in the western part of the state in general, 46.6 percent to 44.4 percent. The lead is within the poll's margin of error.

President Barack Obama also has a 20 percentage point lead ahead of Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to the poll.

The public TV station has provided all the details of the poll, plus plenty of detail about how the poll was conducted and a breakdown of poll results by subcategories, on the KCTS 9 Vote 2012 website.

Candidate Registered Voters  Likely Voters Governor Inslee 47.2% 48.7% McKenna 45.5% 45.6% Senator Baumgartner 31.6% 33.3% Cantwell 59.4% 60.8% Attorney General Dunn 32.4% 34.0% Ferguson 44.2% 44.9% President Obama 56.4% 57.1% Romney 35.9% 36.4%   Ballot Measures

Referendum 74 (Gay Marriage) Yes 57.3% 57.9% No 36.2% 36.9% Initiative 1185 (Supermajority Tax Requirement) Yes 53.0% 52.0% No 34.2% 36.8% Initiative 1240 (Charter Schools) Yes 55.3% 55.5% No 36.4% 37.5% Initiative 502 (Decriminalizing Marijuana) Yes 55.8% 55.4% No 36.7% 37.6%


A third of Washington voters have already sent in their ballots, and a majority of those voters favored Obama (59.9 percent) and Inslee (51.2 percent), according to KCTS's results, possibly caused by a strong nationwide early get-out-the-vote effot by Democrats nationwide, said Matt Barreto, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Washington.

The poll also took into account people who may have lied about opposition to Referendum 74, according to Barreto, by moving some undecideds into the "no" column if they reported having discomfort with sexual minorities, a high level of religiosity, conservative views or people who wanted to give sexual minorities "some" rights.

Barreto said that some may have declined to state that they were against Referendum 74 because of perceptions that it is more socially acceptable to support it than to not support it. 

The poll was conducted between Oct. 18 to 31. A total of 722 registered voters and 632 likely votersthroughout the state of Washington were interviewed, yielding a 3.6 percent and 3.9 percent margin of error respectively, according to KCTS.

dexterjibs November 05, 2012 at 05:17 AM
Doreen, that is great. So adding charter schools to the mix won't affect you. In fact, the competition may improve public schools.
Doreen Anderson November 05, 2012 at 07:00 AM
Hi Dexter I should clarify that the THEY I wrote referred to the teachers (not to the kids), and I was saying that THEY, the teachers, are not failing. (Unclear antecedent, so my fault if unclear.) My point was that most of our teachers are working hard and doing a great job. I want to support them by keeping funds in our local public schools so they can improve programs for ALL kids. And that will become more difficult as more funds are diverted from our programs. There will definitely be a fiscal impact on our local districts from 1240. And yes, the issue of charter schools does affect me. And all of us, whether we have kids or not. We all live in a society that is shaped by the schools. It is going to be a different society when the schools are run by corporations. I know some people are looking forward to that. I'm not (and I did think this might be an issue on which you and I might agree).
John Anderson November 05, 2012 at 09:16 PM
It is understandable that people might think competition would improve schools. But competition creates winners and losers, and the aim of schools is to educate everyone. Teachers do not perform better by pitting them against each other. Competing schools are judged by standardized tests, and those tests have already narrowed the curriculum and forced educators to teach to the test. And high stakes competition is a powerful incentive for some people to cheat (whether in schools, professional sports, Wall Street, etc).
John Anderson November 05, 2012 at 09:18 PM
The driving force for charter schools in our state has been the Washington Business Roundtable and its non-profit lobbying corporation, Partnership for Learning. The board chair of Partnership, from its founding in 1994 and for more than a decade, was Kerry Killinger, CEO of the failed Washington Mutual. He wrote extensively about the promise of charter schools and did much to build momentum for them in our state. But Killinger's obsession to make WaMu the Walmart of banking (to use his own words) led to the largest collapse of a U.S. financial institution in history. He left with $100 million in salary and bonuses, while retirement funds for his employees and pension funds for many others across the country collapsed. Perhaps Kerry Killinger had a better plan for Washington Schools than for banks.
Don Means November 06, 2012 at 12:25 AM
Here's what I've learn during the 68 years of my life. Only one party ever, ever, ever complains that his/her opponent is a 'big spender'. It's always the Republican complaining about a 'big spending' Democrat. That is why when I started hearing ads from Jay Inslee complaining about how Rob Mckenna was a big spender I took note. I don't know if Inslee will win or lose but he's ads say he thinks his goose is cooked. We can only hope.


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